The creation of vibrant new mixed used schemes, and new infrastructure to connect them to the traditional city centre, will be key to unlocking the full potential of the Welsh capital. Chris Potts, Head of Savills Cardiff, discusses the opportunities and challenges ahead.
Half the size of Liverpool, the next largest of the nine UK core cities, Cardiff punches well above its weight. The sixth biggest retail centre in the UK, it attracts over 20 million visitors and £1 billion to the local economy annually. The population is expected to grow 25% by 2034 – faster than any other UK city – and outpace national employment growth, bringing in 27,600 new, largely skilled, jobs.
Cardiff’s real estate market has remained resilient in recent years, with house prices now 21% above their pre 2008 peak. However housing in the city is still relatively affordable, which gives the city a distinct advantage over its regional counterparts. For example, the average house price to earnings ratio in Cardiff is 6.58, compared to 8.99 in nearby Bristol.
Now, to unlock its full potential, Cardiff must deliver on its long held vision to bring the city centre and Cardiff Bay areas together, through improved transport links, such as the Metro, and major new development in both locations and the area between – taking in Central Quay, Dumballs Road and the Arena.
Slow delivery of new homes
A lack of residential development is one of the biggest challenges for the city. Delivery of new homes has slowed over the last five years, with an average of 490 homes built per year, well short of the annual Local Plan target of 2,071. Housing growth stands at 0.3% in Cardiff, compared to 1.5% a decade ago.
Unlike other major UK cities, Cardiff hasn’t seen the resurgence of city centre living or the delivery of purpose built rental stock, with only 23 new build sales in 2018 – representing 3% of all new build sales – within 1km of Cardiff Central station. This is despite Cardiff having a high proportion of 20 to 35 year olds relative to the UK average, the demographic most likely to value city centre living.
Residential constraints are set to be eased by delivery of the strategic allocations along the northern fringes of the city and the emergence of purpose built rental schemes, with three currently in the planning pipeline.
Within central Cardiff, a mixed use approach will be key to delivering residential, using retail and leisure as placemaking tools. The right blend of working environment, infrastructure and public amenity will hold particular appeal with 20-35 year olds who are looking for a ’24 hour city’.
Connectivity will be key to success within the city centre and beyond. For example, the upcoming residential development at Dumballs Road will play an important role in linking the commercial centre with Cardiff Bay. There is an opportunity here to create new pedestrian routes along the riverside and linking in to Canal Park and the new arena site at Atlantic Walk. If such opportunities are realised, alongside the South Wales Metro project and plans to create an integrated bus train and tram system, the city will become an evermore attractive place to live and work.
